What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a platform where you can buy and sell shares based on the outcome of real-world events. Think of it like a stock market, but instead of companies, you're trading on questions like "Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?" or "Will Norges Bank cut rates before summer?"
How Does It Work?
Every market has two options: YES and NO.
- If you think something will happen, you buy YES shares
- If you think something won't happen, you buy NO shares
- Prices range from 1 to 99 cents
- When the event resolves, winning shares pay out
A Quick Example
Say the market asks: "Will Erling Haaland be Premier League top scorer?"
If YES shares are trading at 45 cents, the market implies a 45% probability. If you think the true probability is higher — say 60% — buying YES at 45 cents is a good trade. If Haaland does finish as top scorer, your 45-cent share pays out .
Why Do They Work?
Prediction markets aggregate information from many people. Research shows they're often more accurate than polls, pundits, and even expert panels. Why?
- Skin in the game: Traders put points at risk, incentivizing honest assessments
- Real-time updates: Prices adjust instantly as new information emerges
- Diverse perspectives: Markets combine knowledge from finance experts, sports fans, political junkies, and more
Getting Started on Viking Market
- Browse markets — Find topics you know about
- Read the resolution criteria — Know exactly what counts as YES or NO
- Start small — Get a feel for how prices move
- Diversify — Don't put all your points in one market
Common Questions
Is this gambling? Prediction markets are about informed forecasting, not luck. Your edge comes from knowledge and analysis. Can I lose money? On Viking Market, you trade with points — no real money at risk during our beta phase. How are markets resolved? Each market has clear resolution criteria. An admin resolves markets based on publicly verifiable outcomes.Ready to try? Browse prediction markets on Viking Market and put your knowledge to the test.